tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post1600336888997967359..comments2024-03-28T03:23:34.498-05:00Comments on Save Versus<br> All Wands: Of Orcs and ProbabilityOakes Spaldinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08078500142758654392noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post-56926796838546100952014-07-15T10:34:54.954-05:002014-07-15T10:34:54.954-05:00Some interesting questions were raised and there a...Some interesting questions were raised and there are still a few outstanding issues that I might try to address in a final post (if there is any tolerance left for the topic). But real world work considerations are going to intrude for a day or two.Oakes Spaldinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08078500142758654392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post-76306161527694780122014-07-15T04:39:34.062-05:002014-07-15T04:39:34.062-05:00It wasn't what I was trying to say, Issara. B...It wasn't what I was trying to say, Issara. But . . . I'm going to apologize. After more reflection, I think that Oakes's math is right after all.Alexis Smolenskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10539170107563075967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post-90450490788191157592014-07-15T03:49:53.681-05:002014-07-15T03:49:53.681-05:00So that means in this model, the orcs are actually...So that means in this model, the orcs are actually standing around doing nothing (as opposed to just being moddelled to do so) What you're moddelling by saying that every person that kills an orc lives on to gang up on the rest of the orcs (this is what I take you mean from calculating the second hit based on the first having happened) is a rout. The orcs aren't fighting back, so the concentration of attacks agaisnt them is increasing.<br /><br />Not that it matters of course, the purpose of the excercise is show that rolling a d8 is inadequate for determining how many hitpoints an orc who lives in anything but an entirely peaceful society looks like. The two sets of numbers provide just describe differant scales of violent society (or as I prefer to view it differant kinds of violence)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04278455754046118073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post-58646455018439451322014-07-14T23:10:13.172-05:002014-07-14T23:10:13.172-05:00Yep. You have just successfully arrived at the fi...Yep. You have just successfully arrived at the first set of numbers I generated, and made the same mistake I made the FIRST TIME. See, I was about to post these numbers, then I realized - oops. <br /><br />You have to calculate the second hit based on the first round having happened; you can't calculate both the first two rounds as though they happen at the same time. Once the first round occurs, the adjustments for the second round must be adjusted. Then again for the third round and so on.<br /><br />But you probably have no idea what I mean. Oh well. I'm just the loud mouth anyway. You're right, I'm wrong. That's the simplest assumption.<br /><br />What do I care? I published a book today.Alexis Smolenskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10539170107563075967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6560143148581212281.post-82638404419425542292014-07-14T04:36:22.945-05:002014-07-14T04:36:22.945-05:00Pretty off topic (the math doesn't interest me...Pretty off topic (the math doesn't interest me so much as the thinking behind doing the math) You continue to state that various parts of the rules have no bearing upon the world. Do you assign any value at all to the idea that making sure the world runs in a self consitent way independantly of its interaction with the players? <br /><br />I'm just trying to work out this category error, it feels like you're saying that it's silly to use hitpoints as if they existed in the world because hit points are a useful abstraction to allow players to play the game and nothing more. While I'm try to say that we can't really understand a setting without using hitpoints, these creatures are strong and have a sturdy contsitution is an arbitery decision which could mean anything. The fifth tribe of orcs your adventurers slaughter having a higher proportion of orcs with 1 hit point than those with 8 is lucky if the players can identify it and take advantage of it. It's also something differant and puzzling, probability is a wonderful thing.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04278455754046118073noreply@blogger.com